πŸ›‘οΈ Sentinel β€” How the Strategy Works

A plain-English guide to how the fund trades, and what each setting does.
Sentinel is a patient, long-only Bitcoin trend-follower. It buys only when BTC is in a confirmed uptrend, sits safely in cash the rest of the time, and its entire edge is avoiding the big crashes β€” not catching every move. It trades rarely (about 3–4 times a year), spot only β€” no leverage, no shorting, no borrowed money.

How it decides what to do

It watches three moving-average lines on the daily chart:

Price above the 200-line+ fast line crosses above slow line→ BUY (enter the trend)

When it buys, it risks only 1% of the account on the trade, then holds for as long as the uptrend lasts β€” often weeks or months β€” and exits when one of the rules below triggers. Most of the profit comes from a few big winners it lets run.

How it exits β€” the safety net

There are up to four ways out. The first one is the important one:

ALWAYS ONDeath-cross / trend exit. Sells if the fast line drops back below the slow line, or price falls below the 200-day line. This is the real downside protection β€” it's what gets the fund to cash before a crash deepens, holding the worst drawdown to about βˆ’41% instead of buy-and-hold's βˆ’83%. It can never be turned off.

OPTIONALTake-profit. Sells once price is a set % above your entry (e.g. +25%). Honest note: our tests show a take-profit caps your winners and gives no downside protection, so it's optional and mildly costly β€” included because some people prefer locking gains.

CONFIGURABLEStop-loss (entry price βˆ’ 2Γ—ATR). A backup that cuts a losing trade. It has three modes β€” explained next β€” because how (and whether) it acts is your choice.

ALWAYS ONDrawdown rail. If the account falls 18% from its peak, it stops opening new trades until things recover β€” a circuit-breaker against a bad streak.

The three stop-loss modes

This is the setting on the Settings page. It controls only the stop-loss β€” every other protection above stays active in all three modes. The stop is a secondary exit: it fires on small losers, while the death-cross handles the big moves.

SHADOWLog only β€” never sells

Each day the bot works out the stop level. If price closes below it, the bot writes a log line (β€œstop would have fired at $X”) β€” and does nothing else. The position stays open. It's a dress rehearsal: the stop shows you what it would do without doing it.

Why use it: to verify the stop logic before trusting it with real sell orders. You watch the log build up and confirm it fires at sensible prices and times. This is the recommended starting mode β€” it costs nothing in returns and builds the evidence you need.

LIVEActually places stop sell orders

Same calculation, but when price closes at/below the stop, it really sells and exits.

Know this before switching: the stop is checked once a day at the candle close β€” there is no intraday protection. If price dips below the stop intraday but recovers by the close, it won't sell (this avoids whipsaw). If the day closes below the stop, it sells at that close β€” historically about 1.7% below the stop on average (worst case βˆ’4.2%). A sudden intraday crash would only be exited at the daily close. The proper upgrade for true intraday protection is a resting stop order placed on the exchange.

Why use it: once you've watched Shadow mode and trust the logic. Switching to Live requires ticking a confirmation box, because it places real orders.

OFFNo stop at all (death-cross still protects you)

The stop is completely disabled β€” not calculated, not logged, never acts. The fund exits only on the take-profit and the death-cross.

Why use it: this was actually the best risk-adjusted setup in our testing β€” removing the stop avoids the occasional whipsaw where it sells a dip that then recovers, and the death-cross still carries the protection. Pick this if you've decided you simply don't want a stop.
Off vs. Shadow: for your money they're identical (neither sells on the stop). The only difference is Shadow logs what the stop would do; Off is silent.

ModeCalculates stopLogs itSells on stopOther exits
Shadowyesyesnoall on
Liveyesβ€”yesall on
Offnononoall on
πŸ“ Recommended path: start on Shadow β†’ watch the logs through real (testnet) trades β†’ once you trust it, switch to Live (ideally after the resting exchange-stop is added). You are protected by the death-cross the whole time.

Why this β€” and not something flashier?

Every alternative was tested on real data and rejected, because the numbers didn't hold up:

The lesson under all of it: a few big winners on a real trend beat many small trades β€” every time. The edge is risk control and patience, not activity.

The rules we don't break

Educational tooling β€” not financial advice, and not a promise of returns. Performance figures are historical backtests with fees included; live results will differ and the past does not repeat. Strategy: EMA 20/50 + 200-day trend filter, 2Γ—ATR stop, 1% risk per trade, ~3–4 trades/year, long-only spot.  Β·  Dashboard  Β·  Settings